US surge has failed - Iraqi poll

He and US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are due to testify about the effects of the surge and the current situation in Iraq.

The poll suggests that the overall mood in Iraq is as negative as it has been since the US-led invasion in 2003, says BBC world affairs correspondent Nick Childs.

The poll was conducted in more than 450 neighbourhoods across all 18 provinces of Iraq in August, and has a margin of error of + or - 2.5%.

It was commissioned jointly by the BBC, ABC and Japan's NHK.

Divided nation

It is the fourth such poll in which BBC News has been involved, with previous ones conducted in February 2004, November 2005 and February 2007.

It was commissioned with the specific purpose of assessing the effects of the surge as well as tracking longer term trends in Iraq.

Between 67% and 70% of the Iraqis polled believe the surge has hampered conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic development, according to the August 2007 findings.

Only 29% think things will get better in the next year, compared to 64% two years ago.

The number of people wanting coalition forces to leave immediately rose since February's poll but more than half - 53% - still said they should stay until security improved.

The survey reveals two great divides, our correspondent notes.

First, there is the one between relative optimism registered in November 2005 and the gloom of this year's two polls.

In between, there was the deadly bombing of the Shia mosque in Samarra, which unleashed a bitter and deadly sectarianism. The other great divide is the one now revealed between the Sunni and Shia communities. US troops on outskirts of Baghdad

While 88% of Sunnis say things are going badly in their lives, 54% of Shia think they are going well.

'Good for Baghdad'

Dr Toby Dodge, who was involved in running the poll, pointed to the fact that so many Iraqis saw no improvement to their safety since the US deployed an extra 30,000 troops this year, bringing their number up to nearly 170,000.

More Iraqis want coalition forces to leave immediately

"I think that's a damning critique and an indication of the pessimism and the violence on the ground," he told the BBC's Radio Five Live.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki insisted on Monday that the surge had had a positive effect in the capital, Baghdad, at least.

Violence had dropped 75%, he told the Iraqi parliament, without giving figures.

At the same time, he warned that Iraqi forces were not ready to take over security from the US military which had, he said, "helped... in a great way in fighting terrorism".

Most people 'want Iraq pull-out'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6981553.stm

10 September 2007

Many people believe the US will stay in Iraq permanently

Most people across the world believe US-led forces should withdraw from Iraq within a year, a BBC poll suggests.

Some 39% of people in 22 countries said troops should leave now, and 28% backed a gradual pull-out. Just 23% wanted them to stay until Iraq was safe.

In the US, one-in-four supported an immediate withdrawal, while 32% wanted Iraq's security issues to be resolved before bringing the troops home.

The BBC World Service commissioned the survey of 23,193 people.

See statistics breakdown

In the survey, people were asked whether coalition troops should pull out of Iraq immediately, commit to a gradual withdrawal over a year, or leave when the security situation improves.

In 19 countries, the majority of those questioned believed troops should be withdrawn either immediately or within a year.

Just three countries - Kenya, the Philippines and India - did not have an overall majority favouring withdrawal within a year.

Large numbers of people questioned in India (36%) declined to comment or said they "didn't know".

Muslim countries including Indonesia (65%), Turkey (64%) and Egypt (58%) were among those most eager for troops to be withdrawn immediately.

But an immediate pull-out was much less popular in Australia (22%), the US (24%) and UK (27%) - the countries with most troops deployed in Iraq.

Troop cuts

The top US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, is considering withdrawing about 4,000 troops starting in January, media reports say.

POLL FINDINGS IN FULL

BBC World Service poll[279KB]

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The pull-out of one brigade would only take place if it did not threaten "recent gains" made by US forces following the troop surge that was completed in June, the New York Times reports, quoting senior US government and military officials.

Officials say Gen Petraeus will discuss possible further troop cuts to be made in 2008, when he presents his assessment of US military strategy in Iraq to Congress next week.

There are a record 168,000 US troops in Iraq, including 30,000 additional soldiers deployed as part of the "surge".

The US completed the introduction of 30,000 more troops in Iraq in mid-June.

'Permanent presence'

An Iraqi minister said the most vital need is help from Iraq's neighbours.

"Getting out of Iraq now probably the situation will be worsened; but, if our neighbouring countries ceased involving themselves in Iraq, probably the situation will be improved definitely," Education Minister Abid Dhyab al-Ajili told the BBC.

"So it depends on our neighbouring countries. Definitely I feel, if the American troops pulled out of Iraq, I think the situation will be improved in the long term."

In recent days, leaders from the US, Australia and the UK have said troops must stay in Iraq until the country is safe.

All three countries say they have a commitment to the Iraqi people to remain there until local forces are able to ensure their security.

But Doug Miller of Globescan, which carried out the research, said the results of the survey showed "the weight of global public opinion" was against them.

The respondents were also asked whether they believed the US would leave a permanent military presence in Iraq.

Half of those questioned believed the US would have bases in Iraq permanently, while 36% assumed all troops would withdraw once Iraq was stabilised.

The findings suggest support for keeping foreign troops in Iraq until security has improved has fallen significantly since an earlier World Service poll released in February 2006.

The BBC's world affairs correspondent, Nick Childs, says it is not surprising, more than four years on from a controversial invasion, that international public opinion on the foreign troop presence should now be so negative.

He added that the Bush administration has been battling perceptions that its aim has been to establish a permanent military presence in Iraq as part of a regional strategy - something it has denied.